The European Union is unified on the need to end Russian fuel imports, but its leading economy has been resolute in asserting it can’t afford to break things off too quickly.
While few of the EU’s members are especially keen to pull the plug on Russian energy tomorrow, the Germans especially have been resisting, even under pressure from those on the outside, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who demand they cut ties with Russia immediately.
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The EU hopes it can reduce demand for Russian gas by two-thirds this year by diversifying gas supplies, and the recent Versailles Declaration, agreed to by member states March 11, committed them to “[phasing] out our dependency on Russian gas, oil and coal imports as soon as possible.”
Meanwhile, Germans leaders have resolved an immediate shutoff is not within the realm of possibility.
Emily Haber, the German ambassador to the United States, touted a “sea change” in German foreign and energy policy since the war in Ukraine began and brought up her country’s aspiration, shared earlier this month by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, to stop using Russian oil by year’s end. But Haber said those favoring an immediate shutoff of Russian fuel imports are asking too much.
“Going cold turkey on fossil fuels from Russia would cause a massive, instant disruption. You cannot turn modern industrial plants on and off like a light switch,” Haber tweeted Wednesday. “The knock-on effects would be felt beyond Germany, the EU’s economic engine and 4th largest economy in the world.”
Germany has a large industrial base, manufacturing everything from plastics to petrochemicals and pesticide products, and operating plants requires substantial and consistent volumes of natural gas.
A group of the country’s economists have warned that a halt of Russian energy would slow economic growth to 1.9% in 2022 and contract the economy by 2.2% in the next year, Euractiv reported.
“If gas supplies were to be cut off, the German economy would undergo a sharp recession,” said Stefan Kooths, an economist and vice president at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck said in March that such a large loss of productivity means “some people no longer earning any money at all.”
“If certain sectors, such as the chemical industry or steelworks, can no longer produce, entire supply chains will break down,” he said.
Still, Zelensky and some economic leaders in Germany have said it should weather the losses to keep from paying President Vladimir Putin’s Russia a euro more for energy.
Zelensky told the German Bundestag in March that Russia “uses you and some other countries to finance the war,” and he put out a tweet earlier this month depicting a woman filling up her car’s tank at a European gas station alongside Russian missiles blasting Ukrainian buildings.
“By buying Russian oil and gas, you are financing the killings of Ukrainians,” Zelensky said.
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Though Germany objects to an immediate cutting of ties, it is shooting for 2024 to cut itself off of Russian gas and the end of 2022 for oil.
Meanwhile, EU leaders have begun drafting a ban on Russian oil imports, the New York Times reported Thursday. Details about the reach or effective date of a prospective ban have not been made available, but officials told the outlet the ban would be phased in, much like the EU did with its ban on Russian coal.
