Republican leaders have driven their rank and file to replace Obamacare with demonstrably unpopular new policies because failure to act risks congressional majorities in 2018.
Not President Trump’s tweets, low approval ratings, White House chaos or the federal investigation into Russian meddling that could implicate Trump are thought as perilous in the midterm as the Republicans’ failure to deliver on their promises while in control all levers of government.
That’s why all but three Senate Republicans voted early Friday morning for healthcare reform legislation that was so inadequate they demanded assurances from House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., that it would never become law.
Senate Republicans needed more time to reach consensus on repealing the Affordable Care Act, and open negotiations with House Republicans and hopefully get there, they backed legislation projected to raise premiums 20 percent, knowing full well the campaign ads write themselves.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., eulogizing the party’s effort to repeal and replace Obamacare immediately following the failed vote, conceded the political danger his party faces, and sought to save face, even as Republicans presumably turn their attention to overhauling the tax code.
“I and many of my colleagues did as we promised and voted to repeal this failed law,” said McConnell, a keen electoral tactician. “We told our constituents we would vote that way, and when the moment came — when the moment came — most of us did. We kept our commitments.”
The Republican bill failed in a middle-of-the-night vote 51-49, when three Republicans joined all Democrats in opposition, capped by Arizona Sen. John McCain’s dramatic, unexpected “no” vote.”
Polling on the “skinny repeal” package, as it was referred to, wasn’t available. It was developed in the past few days after Senate Republicans failed to agree on a robust plan to replace Obamacare, and was only introduced three and a half hours before Friday morning’s vote.
But there is plenty of public feedback on the House Republicans’ American Health Care Act, in the spring, and the Senate GOP’s Better Care Reconciliation Act — both partial repeals of Obamacare — and the numbers were all uniformly bad.
Approvals ranged from 12 percent to 27 percent, depending on the survey. Meanwhile, the Affordable Care Act, despite being in more trouble than ever since its implementation, is more popular than unpopular for the first time in history.
Republicans commitment to sending either the AHCA or BCRA to Trump’s desk nonetheless is revealing of how much political value they place on fulfilling their seven-year-old promise to repeal former President Barack Obama’s signature achievement.
“We can’t stop until it’s done,” said veteran Republican consultant Brad Todd, who is advising Republicans on the 2018 ballot.
The Democrats held a lead of 9 percentage point over the Republicans in polling averages showing which party voters would prefer control the Congress, an ominous sign for the GOP 15 months before Election Day.
Republicans arguably won their House and Senate majorities, and the White House over three elections based on their promise to repeal Obamacare.
Trump, more liberal on healthcare policy than conventional Republicans, adopted the repeal argument late in his presidential campaign when he realized how potent it was with the GOP, especially those voters skeptical of his candidacy.
McConnell said on the floor after the vote that it’s time to move on.
He expressed disappointment in the outcome, and suggested that maybe it’s time to let the Democrats propose solutions to a healthcare system that both sides of the aisle believe needs fixing (though they disagree on who’s to blame.)
But not all Senate Republicans are ready to let go, however, concerned that taking repeal off the table and strengthening the Affordable Care Act could cause an irreparable rift with the conservative base.
“Senators are going to go home in the next few weeks, they’re going to go home to their states and they’re going to face their constituents, they’re going to have hard questions of people who look them in the eyes and say: ‘Why did you lie to me?'” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said. “I believe we’ll come back and honor our promise.”
