Sometime early next year, the six commissioners who run the Federal Election Commission will face an interesting dilemma–whether to approve a “for cause” audit of the presidential campaign of a sitting president, Barack Obama.

From a legal standpoint, this should be an easy vote. Serious issues were raised in numerous media reports chronicling the Obama campaign’s probable violations of federal law. If the career staff at the FEC follow the ordinary, regulatory model of investigations, they will recommend such an audit to the commissioners. However, the odds are that the three Democratic commissioners will be under enormous pressure to vote “no.” Some members of their party may make it clear that their professional and political careers in Washington will be finished if they vote to approve such an audit. Since it takes four votes for the FEC to take any action, at least one of those Democratic commissioners will have to join with the three Republicans to approve an audit.