Trump is in big trouble with Hispanic voters

They’re on course to vote in equal or greater numbers for Hillary Clinton this November than they did for President Obama four years ago.

That matters because Obama’s advantage with Hispanic voters, 72 percent to 27 percent nationally, is recognized as a major factor in his victory over Republican Mitt Romney.

In a new survey of Hispanic voters, Clinton led Trump nationally 70 percent to 19 percent. Trump’s performance with Hispanic voters in four of seven battleground states also measured in the poll was even worse.

In Arizona, Clinton led Trump among Hispanics 70 percent to 18 percent; in Colorado she led 72 percent to 17 percent; in North Carolina, she led 73 percent to 14 percent; and in Nevada, she led 70 percent to 14 percent.

Trump’s numbers weren’t much better in Florida, where there is a sizable bloc of conservative Hispanics (Clinton led 62 percent to 27 percent) or in Ohio and Virginia, where she led 61 percent to 22 percent and 67 percent to 19 percent, respectively.

All of these states are crucial to Trump’s ability to win the presidency, and if he can’t reverse this trend, beating Clinton could be near impossible — unless there is a drop off in Hispanic turnout compared to four years ago.

That doesn’t appear likely at this point, said a senior analyst for Latino Decisions, the firm that conducted the poll on behalf of America’s Voice, a liberal group that supports comprehensive immigration reform and the legalization of illegal immigrants.

“The question is: Is Trump going to motivate higher turnout?” David Damore said Friday in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “I think there’s a potential for that to occur.”

Latino Decisions surveyed 3,729 registered Hispanic voters nationally Aug. 19-30, in English and Spanish, via landline and cellphone. The poll has an error margin of 1.6 percentage points. Samples for the state polls were smaller, with a higher margin of error.

Damore said the poll reflects Hispanic voters’ reaction to Trump’s immigration policies and rhetoric over the past 15 months.

In the speech the New York businessman delivered in June of 2015 declaring his candidacy, he described some illegal Mexican immigrants as rapists and criminals.

Trump then made cracking down on illegal immigration, and reducing legal immigration, the centerpiece of his campaign.

He opposes birthright citizenship, and for months advocated forcibly rounding up and deporting the 11 to 12 million illegal immigrants living in the U.S., including those whose only criminal offense was illegally crossing the border.

As a result, Damore said, 70 percent of Hispanics agreed in the Latino Decisions poll that Trump has made the Republican Party “more hostile” to them. Damore said that finding in particular jumped out at him as significant.

Trump continues to garner favorable numbers with Hispanics that are low even for Republicans. Nationally, a whopping 74 percent view Trump unfavorably; only 29 percent of Hispanics view Clinton unfavorably.

The poll also showed that 45 percent of Hispanics now believe that Republicans “don’t care too much” for them, with another 28 percent saying the GOP is “sometimes hostile” to their community.

By contrast, 56 percent of Hispanics said in the polls that the Democratic Party “truly cares” for them.

Trump lately has made overtures to Hispanic voters. He has equivocated on, though not ruled out, mass deportations, and occasionally, though not always, softened his rhetoric on immigration.

He is still vowing to build a border wall and force Mexico to pay for it.

“To all Hispanic Americans who want better jobs and higher wages: I will be your champion,” Trump said Friday during a speech in Florida.

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster who monitors Hispanic voting habits, said Trump’s outreach, such that it is, is unlikely to work given the image of him that has taken hold.

“It doesn’t help to have the Republican nominee pledging to deport 11 million people. Even if he shades that now he’s been out there for over a year pledging mass deportation,” Ayres said.

Trump appears to have elevated the importance of immigration among Hispanic voters. Political analysts that monitor Hispanic voting patterns described that as noteworthy, and say it could be another hurdle for Trump.

In the Latino Decisions poll, “immigration/deportations” ranked No. 1 on the scale of issues, above “jobs/economy,” which finished second.

Usually, immigration ranks lower than the kitchen table issues important to whites and other voting blocs, although it functions as a “gateway” issue, meaning Hispanics are unlikely to listen to a politician’s pitch on issues like the jobs and the economy if they perceive hostility to their community vis-a-vis immigration.

The poll did offer a word of caution for Clinton and the Democrats, however.

As the Washington Post’s Greg Sargent reported in his piece on the Latino Decision’s poll:

Yet Lynn Tramonte, the deputy director of pro-immigrant America’s Voice, which sponsored the new polling, says there are some causes for concern also lurking in the data — involving the enthusiasm level among Latinos.

It’s true that the poll found that 76 percent of Latinos nationally say it’s more important to vote this year than in 2012. That’s good news for Clinton. But Tramonte notes that the poll also shows that more middling percentages say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in 2012: 51 percent say this nationally, while the number who say this is no higher than 50 percent in any of the battleground states polled.

“When you ask Latino voters if they think it’s more important to vote, you get high numbers saying Yes,” Tramonte tells me. “The concern is that people may recognize that it’s an important election, but if they’re not really excited about voting, life can get in the way.”