THE 2004 ELECTION may not be over, but it is finished, and Wednesday-morning quarterbacking always makes results look perfectly rational. At every point in the campaign (save the first presidential debate) John Kerry was the candidate who had the embarrassing iconic moments: windsurfing, botox, fake-tan, Swift Boats, Mary Cheney, $87 billion, saying “fuck” in Rolling Stone, “global test,” goose hunting. Every Dukakis-in-a-tank moment in this campaign belonged to Kerry. And when you lose a race, all anybody ever remembers are the Dukakis-in-the-tank moments. So looking back, Bush’s victory appears almost inevitable. Of course it wasn’t. Had Kerry won, observers would be making the same inevitability argument: recession, net job loss, unpopular war–there was no way this faltering incumbent could have won!

The point is, few things in politics are ever really inevitable. And even with Bush’s second term secure, there are a number of important open questions going forward.