President Trump is officially running for reelection. As he declared in his campaign launch rally, “we are going to keep on winning, winning, winning.”

Well, not so fast. The coalition that elected him in 2016 is far from a lock heading into 2020. Then, Trump ran as the anti-establishment outsider appealing to restless conservatives, suburbanites, and working-class voters — the latter relative newcomers to the GOP and essential to the party’s future. Not only did they elect Trump, they sent Republican majorities to Congress too.