President Trump is working to wrest back control from the opponent that is currently beating him in the 2020 presidential race. It’s not presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, though he will be the primary beneficiary if Trump is unable to right the ship by Election Day — it’s the coronavirus and its economic fallout.
“Trump is getting the usual advantage of incumbency and impact of the presidential pulpit,” said Democratic strategist Jessica Tarlov. “Trump poses a unique threat to Americans’ health and well-being, and I believe that’s what has stripped away that inherent advantage.”
That’s going to be a big part of the Democrats’ general election message, and changing this narrative won’t be easy. Congress’s impasse over the next round of coronavirus economic relief spending seemed unbreakable, and the post-lockdown jobs gains have slowed as some states pause their reopenings. School districts and many teachers are balking at resuming in-person classroom instruction this fall. So Trump is trying to take matters into his own hands, seeing what can be done through executive power.
“Upon departing the Oval Office for Ohio, I’ve notified my staff to continue working on an Executive Order with respect to Payroll Tax Cut, Eviction Protections, Unemployment Extensions, and Student Loan Repayment Options,” Trump tweeted on Thursday while en route to signing a “Buy American” executive order requiring the federal government to purchase U.S.-made “essential” medicines.
With the Democrats in the majority in the House of Representatives and a split among Senate Republicans over federal spending and deficits, Trump’s only course of action might be to wield what his predecessor called the “pen and a phone” — despite his party’s historical misgivings about the excessive use of executive orders, especially when they cut into what are constitutionally seen as legislative functions. When it comes to stimulating the economy, keeping federal aid flowing, and cajoling public schools into reopening, the question is how much Trump can legally do with the limited tools at his disposal.
For example, Trump has talked about promoting school choice as an alternative if classes don’t begin on schedule in public school districts across the country. “If schools do not reopen, the funding should go to parents to send their child to public, private, charter, religious, or home school of their choice. The key word being ‘choice,’” he told reporters at a White House briefing. “If the school is closed, the money should follow the student, so the parents and families are in control of their own decisions. So we’d like the money to go to the parents of the student. This way, they can make the decision that’s best for them.”
The idea has a lot of conservative support. “In general, existing federal funding would better serve students if families could take those funds to learning options of choice,” said Lindsey Burke, director of the Center for Education Policy at the Heritage Foundation. “So many of the issues facing education right now emanating from the coronavirus have been compounded by the fact that K-12 funding is provided to schools rather than students.”
But Trump’s ability to make it happen is limited. “Basically, I think the only mechanism that would explicitly trigger money following children if their public schools do not open for in-person instruction would be something included in the next relief package,” said Neal McCluskey, director of the Center for Educational Freedom at the libertarian Cato Institute.
As phased reopening began in the spring, Trump tried mightily to turn the page on the pandemic. The base approved, but much of the public, including the crucial senior citizen vote, which has in many polls tilted sharply toward Biden, remained frightened. Then, there was a resurgence of the virus, this time in must-win Sun Belt states that largely voted for Trump four years ago.
A course correction was required. The near-daily coronavirus briefings returned, with Trump front and center without Vice President Mike Pence or top medical advisers such as Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx. The live portion of the Republican National Convention scheduled in Jacksonville was canceled, with Trump specifically citing the number of coronavirus cases in Florida. The president went out in public wearing a mask somewhat more frequently, a habit he and other White House officials described as “patriotic.”
Still, Trump can’t beat this “silent enemy” with improved symbolism alone. Executive orders on the payroll tax and jobless benefits could be the beginning of the decisive phase of his first term — and go a long way toward determining whether there is a second.
