Former President Donald Trump is preparing a revenge tour. He has promised to be voters’ “retribution.” He vows to speak for the voters left behind, ignored, or betrayed by President Joe Biden.
A deadlocked Congress in the second half of Trump’s 2017-21 term and the difficulties of learning how to navigate Washington left Trump with a laundry list of failed accomplishments in office. Now he’s pledging to deliver on original promises from his 2016 campaign. And it’s an ironic echo of Biden’s own 2020 campaign call to send him back to the White House to “finish the job,” a reference to his eight years as vice president to Barack Obama from 2009-17.
Similar to his November rematch opponent, Biden has his own unfulfilled legislative wish list, going back to the Obama administration — and even Biden’s 36 years in the Senate as a Delaware Democrat.
There’s some recent history on this kind of legislative long game. When Biden finally reached the pinnacle of political life as president in 2021, he didn’t hesitate to begin enacting favored policies going back nearly a half-century.
Congressional Republicans might call this a “revenge tour” of sorts, while Biden and allies see it as a continuation of this unfinished business from his prior public roles, including criticism Obama received for not delivering bigger stimulus legislation in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. So, as president, Biden rushed to get enacted the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan in March 2021 to speed up the country’s recovery from the economic and health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the recession.
Republicans pointed to the huge spending bill as a driving force behind the 40-year high inflation that has sat around Biden’s approval ratings like a lead weight.
Two months after sending out billions of dollars, Biden decided it was time to achieve the foreign policy goals that were ignored when Obama was his boss. Leaning on an agreement Trump made with the Taliban, Biden ended the “forever war” in Afghanistan and brought troops home, with little warning for U.S. allies.
The decision to remove military personnel before diplomats and other civilians resulted in a chaotic scramble reminiscent of the 1975 withdrawal from Vietnam, which happened early in Biden’s Senate career, and the kind of thing he promised wouldn’t be repeated. The debacle was the first major misstep of his presidency and the inflection point from which his approval rating hasn’t recovered.
Without reelection on the horizon and nothing to concern him except his legacy, what might Biden, in the next four years, try to accomplish in a second term?
Loan forgiveness
Republicans hammered Biden for his promise to forgive millions of dollars in student loans on the campaign trail in 2020 as a sop to young voters. What started as a COVID-19 relief effort, letting borrowers hit pause on making loan payments and not accrue any new interest, was extended multiple times by the Biden White House.
Biden had already built on that plan as president-elect, promising to forgive at least $10,000 for every student borrower.
Since the Supreme Court struck down his $400 billion plan to cancel debt for thousands of borrowers in June 2023, Biden has found other ways to “forgive” billions of dollars in loans, most recently canceling $5 billion for borrowers who have spent at least 10 years working in public service jobs.
Attempting to wipe ledgers clean via executive action failed, but Democrats anxious to see Biden continue pushing for more liberal policies are demanding he not let up on a signature promise.
Immigration
It’s been nearly 38 years since Congress enacted significant immigration legislation. House and Senate leaders are trying to hash out a deal with the White House to tie additional aid to Ukraine and Israel to a more secure border, but the deal is far from finished.
Biden went straight to work rescinding the Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy, signaling a loosening of security at the border. As a result, the Department of Homeland Security has been reporting new record-high encounters every few months.
Trump and Republicans are making immigration policy a problem for Biden. They are targeting Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for impeachment. And Trump is on the campaign trail promising to finish the wall along the southern border, end birthright citizenship, and roll back all forms of immigration.
Mired in abysmal polling, Biden’s policies on immigration have been an anchor around his neck. Earlier this month, a record-low 18% of voters told ABC News they approved of the president’s immigration policies.
But as Biden bleeds support with Latino voters and his primary opponent is turning up his rhetoric about immigrants “poisoning the blood” of the country, the prospect of being the first president in a generation to broker any kind of border policy agreement would bolster his view of himself as a consummate deal-maker who understands how to get things done in Washington.
Gun control
As a senator, Biden was a prime supporter of an assault-style weapons ban. A moving plea on the Senate floor helped secure support to attach a ban to the 1994 crime bill that enhanced the then-Senate Judiciary Committee chairman’s already robust national profile. The assault-style weapons provision of the eventual broader crime law expired a decade later in 2004.
Subsequent attempts to repeat the legislative success have failed. Despite his harsh words for the Supreme Court and cajoling of Congress, representatives appear to have lost their taste for curtailing Second Amendment rights.
Biden has been more effective than any of his predecessors since President Bill Clinton in using the legislative process to tighten access to firearms. The bipartisan bill he signed in June 2022 blocked gun sales to people who are convicted of domestic violence living with their unmarried partners and provided funding for state governments that administer red flag laws.
An emboldened Biden coming off a second victory over Trump will likely take aim at doubling down on his legacy as the senator who swung Congress to ban assault-style weapons for a decade and the president who achieved the first piece of bipartisan firearms regulation in nearly 30 years.
Whether there is an appetite in the Capitol to touch another political third rail is likely to be a passing thought for a president who is staring down his final years in public life.
Into the Sunset
Biden has little hope of achieving any of his dreams without the support of Congress.
His efforts at student loan cancellation were rejected by the Supreme Court. And his railing about the need for stricter gun control has fallen on deaf ears down the street from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
But if Democrats pull off wins like they did in 2020 and 2022, there is an outside chance Biden will walk back into the White House with a pen, phone, and his party in control of Congress.
It will be an uphill battle for Democrats to retain control of the Senate. But if they fend off a red wave, the largest obstacles to killing the filibuster are likely to be gone. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) isn’t running for reelection, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) appears to be the odd woman out in a much-watched race in Arizona.
Republicans might have a favorable enough map to retain control of the House and win back the Senate, as well as unite behind Trump to take back the White House. But if they fail at any one of those goals, Biden will have nothing left to lose on his way out of the White House doors.
