Vladimir Putin’s warnings to NATO to retreat from Russia’s borders expose his fear of failure, both in Ukraine and domestically.

Contrary to what he says, Putin is not afraid of a NATO invasion of Russia. Nor does he fear Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory or against Russian speakers in Ukraine. His core fear is that an independent Ukraine and a NATO umbrella for regional security will expose the failure of the Russian state and precipitate the collapse of his corrupt authoritarian regime. And paradoxically, another attack on Ukraine will accelerate that process.