However negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine conclude, a profound shift has already occurred in Washington: the Trump administration now acknowledges that Ukraine requires credible security guarantees backed by the United States. This represents the most significant strategic recalibration in U.S. policy toward Europe in 15 years.

The transformation is significant. At the 2008 Bucharest Summit, while the Bush administration supported Ukraine’s NATO membership aspirations, the alliance gave Kyiv a soft rejection. In subsequent years, especially under President Barack Obama, many in Washington insisted categorically that America would never guarantee Ukrainian security. They argued that the risks were too high, the commitment too difficult to undertake, and Ukraine too distinct from core U.S. interests.