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Shortly after NATO announced its expansion to include Finland and Sweden last month, I wrote an article on the strategic significance of Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast.
Earlier this week, Lithuania blocked rail shipments to the Russian exclave. Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, warned that Moscow would “respond in such a way that the citizens of the NATO and European Union members would feel the pain.”
Nested between Lithuania and Poland, two NATO member states, Kaliningrad’s logistical lifeline comes by sea and rail. The rail line runs through Lithuania, and therein lies the rub. Lithuania says it is only complying with EU economic sanctions that target the transport of steel and other ferrous metals.
Lithuania could be splitting hairs. Technically, the metals are being transported from one de facto Russian territory (Belarus) to another by rail — there is no trade involved. But because the metals transit Lithuania — and, by default, EU territory — Lithuania appears to have taken the opportunity to poke the bear, with NATO’s Article V providing the security blanket. An unnecessary provocation? Maybe. Given the history between the two countries, however, and in particular Russia’s brutal post-World War II occupation of Lithuania, one can certainly understand the latter’s desire to make life as inconvenient as possible for Russia.
The EU and NATO are now concerned about possible Russian escalation in retaliation over Lithuania’s move. The United States has reiterated its support for Lithuania. Still, Russian and Belarusian military forces in the Kaliningrad region are formidable. While rhetoric and show of force tactics are the most likely courses of action in the Russian playbook, the Suwalki Gap is vulnerable. This 40-mile-wide stretch of border between Poland and Lithuania is the only land corridor connecting the Baltic countries with their central European NATO partners. Shutting down this corridor, either physically by occupation or through means of hybrid warfare to disrupt or bring to a halt commercial traffic along its two main highways, may, from a Russian perspective, be a reasonable counteraction.
Sometimes poking the bear is a good thing. Putin has become a little too smug. The U.S., EU, and NATO should take notice — strong alliances deter aggression.
