The public demonstrations and storming of government buildings in Kazakhstan serve as a warning to the Kremlin about Russia’s future.

Although the Kazakh protests were evidently manipulated by rival factions in the ruling elite, they served as another warning to Moscow that public anger may simmer for years below the surface but can explode suddenly and spread rapidly. The appearance of stability and public passivity in Russia cannot be taken for granted. A triggering event such as a price increase or a rigged election can unexpectedly escalate public demands for broader political changes and replacement of the regime.