Only 40 Seats?

At a policy luncheon last week hosted by the Hoover Institution, professors David Brady and Douglas Rivers presented their findings on the mood of the electorate and, in particular, the mood of independents going into the midterm election. The way they see it, the results in November will not be some massive historical shift from Democrats to Republicans, but rather something smaller—and having less to do with voters’ opinions of President Obama than whether or not they consider their elected representative to be out of step with their beliefs and values. All told, Brady and Rivers expect Republicans to gain 40 seats net, with 3 seats switching from Republican to Democrat.