Hurricane Milton has been downgraded to a Category 4 hurricane ahead of its expected landfall as a Category 3 storm around Tampa Bay late Wednesday evening. Life-threatening storm surges and winds are predicted to hit an already damaged Florida, where at least 20 people died from Hurricane Helene nearly two weeks ago.
Milton’s strength
On Sunday morning, Milton was only a tropical storm. However, after growing by more than 60 mph within a 24-hour period, it upgraded to a Category 3 by 7 a.m. Monday morning. Milton became a Category 4 at 9 a.m. and then, two hours later, grew to a Category 5. The storm eased throughout Monday night, going back to a strong Category 4, but it is continuing to head for the Tampa Bay area with breakneck wind speeds of 145 mph as of late Wednesday morning.
Expected landfall
The storm was about 190 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida, as of Wednesday morning. It is anticipated to make landfall Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning in Florida’s Tampa Bay region, specifically, Pinellas County and Hillsborough County, as a Category 3, prompting widespread evacuation orders around Tampa Bay for Floridians reeling from Hurricane Helene’s destruction.
“Even if it weakens before landfall, Milton will be a major hurricane with catastrophic impacts on our state,” Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) said in a press conference on Wednesday.
As of this morning, Hurricane Milton is still a Category 4 storm. Even if it weakens before landfall, Milton will be a major hurricane with catastrophic impacts on our state.
— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) October 9, 2024
Now is the time to execute your hurricane preparedness plan. Heed evacuation warnings from your local… pic.twitter.com/qGlJsT7uW6
Power in Orlando, Florida, is not guaranteed as the storm passes through the middle of the state, but cities further inland are considered safer destinations for evacuations as Milton is expected to weaken to a Category 1 or 2 as it crosses over Central Florida on Thursday before dropping back to a tropical storm as it continues east over the Atlantic Ocean.
Milton’s risks
Storm surges are the most dangerous aspect of this storm, with the worst occurring just south of the storm’s center and amounting to 10 to 15 feet. It’s anticipated that the storm surges will hit the Tampa Bay area the hardest, and officials are warning all residents in the area to evacuate or seek shelter centers immediately. Storm surge warnings and hurricane watches have been issued along all of Florida’s western coast.
Fifteen Florida counties were under mandatory evacuation orders as of Wednesday morning.
Charlotte County, Citrus County, Collier County, Flagler County, Hernando County, Hillsborough County, Lee County, Levy County, Manatee County, Marion County, Pasco County, Pinellas County, Sarasota County, St. Johns County, and Volusia County are home to more than 7.2 million people.
The storm is also expected to bring more rain to the state, dumping up to 15 inches in parts of the Florida Keys and the peninsula, making flash floods a serious risk. High wind speeds are also a threat, as many of the downed trees and power lines caused by Helene pose a risk for flying debris. Smaller items are cause for concern, too — nails, pieces of wood, home appliances, trash, and much more sit in piles throughout the state, making the storm’s threat even more serious.
The Tampa Bay area’s National Weather Service office said the storm could bring “catastrophic wind damage” to the counties of Sarasota, Pinellas, and Lee.
Preparation
DeSantis has issued emergency declarations for 51 counties. Some areas are evacuating on Monday, including the coastal city of Anna Maria near Tampa and long-term care facilities in Pinellas County. Officials are encouraging everyone to plan for an evacuation, regardless of whether an order has been issued.
“There are free shelters in your area with enormous capacity still available, traffic is flowing, and shuttles and Uber rides are still available at no cost,” DeSantis said.
“Residents should begin finalizing their disaster plans, and if your plan calls for you to evacuate, you should do so today,” said Kevin Guthrie, the executive director for the Florida Division of Emergency Management, in a Monday press conference. “I would highly recommend if anybody has the means to do so, if you have the capability of going to a hotel or staying with friends or families, get on the road today, wherever that might be.”
Multiple shelters will open Monday for those who are unable to evacuate fully. Polk County, which is east of Tampa, has listed shelters where food and water will be provided that will be operational for residents to wait out the storm. Special needs shelters have begun calling people off their special needs registries to take them to their designated shelters.
“There’s hoteling in Orlando. If you are 100% going to be dependent on power and you have the means to do so, you may wanna consider Jacksonville,” Guthrie said. “It’s likely Jacksonville will not experience any power outage, so if you’ve got to be guaranteed power and you have the financial means, you may want to consider something further away.”
Tampa Bay’s local government has collaborated with Uber to give residents free vouchers to evacuate the area if they are unable to drive. There are reports of gas stations running out of fuel and traffic jams so severe that they nearly put evacuees at higher risk.
DeSantis announced Wednesday that 50,000 linemen across the Sunshine State are ready to “get to work restoring power” as soon as Milton passes in “the largest staging of power restoration linemen in Florida’s history.
This season’s storms
Milton’s path is unusual. Since 1850, only two other storms have formed in the Gulf’s bay and made landfall on the west coast of Florida. For the first time ever, there have been three simultaneous storms in the Atlantic post-September: Kirk, Leslie, and Milton.
Milton came within reach of breaking the record for the most catastrophic hurricane in the Atlantic on Monday afternoon after reaching wind speeds of over 180 mph as a Category 5 storm. Based on the guidelines from a 1998 study, it appears Milton came close to growing as strong as the Earth’s atmosphere could handle, meeting the hypothetical requirements of a Category 6 storm.
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According to the National Hurricane Center, the only storms to have ever reached such intense wind speeds are Hurricane Allen at 190 mph in 1980, Hurricane Wilma at 175 mph in 2005, and Hurricane Irma at 185 mph in 2017.
Hurricane Helene’s damage continues to affect the southeastern United States, accumulating a death toll of over 230 people. With more rain and storm surges to come, it’s vital for Florida residents to shelter from Milton in any way they can.
