Well over $500 million were bet on the 2020 election, and that number has surged in 2024. Just under two weeks out, more than $2.3 billion have been bet on the 2024 presidential election on Polymarket alone. This raises the question: What is election betting, and do betting odds reflect actual probability?

Maxim Lott, founder of ElectionBettingOdds.com, explained to the Washington Examiner why betting odds are more predictive than the polls and revealed the “turning point” that jump-started former President Donald Trump’s rise in the election odds and polling.