About two years ago, Democrats were reeling from a shocking defeat, and pundits were talking of a radical political realignment as working class whites came out in droves for President Trump and Rust Belt states turned red. Now, Democrats, newly in control of the House, are celebrating victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and Republicans are fretting that the suburbs are lost forever.

Those of us who write about politics and analyze it for a living have a natural tendency to craft a grand narrative that offers a simple explanation for political outcomes that are influenced by a multitude of factors. And so, after every election, as we dissect the outcome, we risk weighing the most recent election too heavily when trying to predict how the next several are going to go.