Democrats Tuesday celebrated the fifth House Republican from Texas to announce his retirement in a once deep-red state the party is increasingly optimistic it can swipe from the GOP.
“We call it the Texodus,” Austin-based Democratic strategist Colin Strother told the Washington Examiner. “The Republican power base in Texas has got to be worried. We are excited.”
Rep. Bill Flores’ announcement Tuesday that he would not seek a sixth term representing the state’s 17th District come amid a flood of House Republican retirements.
So far 15 GOP lawmakers have declared they will not run in 2020. A third of them are from Texas.
“The retirements are a mix of safe Republican districts as well as some swing districts, and those give us some consternation,” Texas Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser told the Washington Examiner.
Campaign analysts said Democrats could pick up three of Texas seats now held by Reps. Will Hurd, Pete Olson, and Kenny Marchant, who announced their retirements over the summer.
Flores and fellow Texas Republican Rep. Mike Conaway, who announced his retirement in July, are from more solidly Republican districts.
Hurd’s district is particularly vulnerable. The non-partisan Cook Political Report lists it as “Lean Democrat,” meaning it will be hard for another GOP candidate to replace Hurd. Olson’s and Marchant’s districts are now considered toss-ups.
Democrats are eager to make inroads in more GOP-leaning districts. Three additional Texas seats now held by Republican Reps. Michael McCaul, Chip Roy, and John Carter, are considered somewhat competitive and Democrats could even make a serious play for the Flores and Conaway seats in their zeal to seize Texas.
“Democrats are serious about it,” Steinhauser said. “They are investing time and money. They believe it.”
Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the non-partisan Inside Elections, said the decision by Flores to retire does not add to the Democratic threat in Texas because his district leans heavily in the GOP’s favor.
“Texas is emerging as a competitive state, but Flores’ announcement isn’t really part of that scenario,” Gonzales told the Washington Examiner. “He was not in danger of losing re-election and Republicans should hold the open seat.”
Gonzales said the three more competitive Texas districts will force the GOP to spend money and resources defending seats that will be less secure in future elections without longtime incumbents.
“Even if Republicans hold one, two, or all of those seats, we know that Texas will have a considerably newer congressional delegation with less seniority than before,” Gonzales said.
Steinhauser acknowledged Democrats are excited about their prospects in Texas but said the GOP is beginning to fight back with voter registration and candidate recruitment efforts.
“Republicans are taking it seriously and taking measures to prevent it,” Steinhauser said.
Flores, 65, told the Washington Examiner in an interview Tuesday his decision to retire had nothing to do with the political state of play in Texas.
Flores is the former chairman of the House Republican Study Committee, a prominent faction of conservatives. He district encompasses Waco and parts of Austin.
“I made the decision for family reasons and family reasons only,” Flores said. “The thing that made my decision a little bit easier is this is a center-right district.”
Flores said he’s been in touch with people interested in running for the seat but would not disclose any names.
“Texas is still a conservative state,” Flores said. “Yes, it’s changing. But it’s up to us as Republicans. If we put up good candidates, we’ll continue to hold it because of the values we stand for.”
