For months, Elizabeth Warren held off publishing details on how to pay for her “Medicare for all” proposal, which would effectively eliminate private health insurance in favor of a government program.
It turns out there was a good reason why.
Since the Massachusetts senator released details of her healthcare plan on Nov. 1 to counter charges by 2020 Democratic presidential rivals that it would raise taxes on middle-class earners, her poll numbers have dropped in key early voting states.
Ahead of the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses, every poll of Democrats in the state this month has shown her support decrease. The latest Des Moines Register/CNN poll found her at 16% support. An Oct. 25-30 New York Times/Siena College poll had her at 22% support.
Nationally, Warren has seen her numbers in the mid-to-high teens, down from her consistent polling in the 20% range during October. Warren, 70, is now 6.7 percentage points behind former Vice President Joe Biden, 76, in the RealClearPolitics national average.
Warren doesn’t have the “Medicare for all” proposal to herself. Socialist Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders made the idea famous, going back to his 2016 Democratic presidential bid. But Sanders has openly campaigned on higher middle-class taxes to fund his healthcare plan, arguing American taxpayers would end up saving money due to decreasing healthcare costs.
Democratic strategists and insiders who have spoken with the Washington Examiner since the beginning of the month have expressed dismay that Warren committed to a “Medicare for all” program and have said it could prove to be a major liability in a general election.
[Read more: Warren says she’ll phase in ‘Medicare for All’ gradually via an opt-in government healthcare plan]
That reflects skepticism by Democratic primary voters, as seen in a poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers conducted by the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom. The survey found that 36% support a “Medicare for all” plan that would eliminate private health insurance and enroll all Americans into a government-run system. Over 54% said that instead they would like to see a public option, backed by government, or improvements to the Affordable Care Act, which relies largely on private insurance.
Only 36% of respondents said they want a nominee who will “back big ideas, even if there’s a lower chance they would become law.” Fifty-two percent said they want a candidate who will “advocate for proposals that have a good chance of becoming law, even if the changes aren’t as big.”
“The work we’ve done shows there’s nothing to suggest Democratic voters are in favor of ‘Medicare for all.’ I think people are trying to get things that fix the current laws and get a policy that works,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who has worked with Democrats such as President Bill Clinton and the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts.
“You have 10, 12 people running, and one of the things candidates tend to do is say, ‘How can I get a share of the electorate?’ and not ask what it means if I’m the nominee,” Hart told the Washington Examiner. “They play for the short end of the field. It plays well for certain constituencies, but it becomes a liability. Senator Warren is trying to figure out how to walk this back slightly, without flip-flopping.”
