The International Monetary Fund warned that if the war in Iran escalates, it could further raise oil, gas, and food commodity prices, putting the global economy at risk of a recession.

The IMF published its April 2026 World Economic Outlook titled “Global Economy in the Shadow of War” on Tuesday, warning that the state of the global economy in the face of the Iran war will “crucially depend on the conflict’s duration, intensity, and scope,” which the IMF called “inherently unpredictable.”