The economy might, but only might, be slowing. In March we added only 126,000 jobs, the lowest increase since December 2013, barely enough to absorb new entrants into the workforce. Almost all measures of the health of the labor market — the unemployment rate, the number of workers jobless for more than 27 weeks, the number involuntarily working short hours or too discouraged to continue looking for a job — remain more or less stuck at present levels. Some analysts say this proves the economy is slowing. Quite the contrary say others: the combination of a stable unemployment rate (5.5%) and an up-creep in wages (+0.3% in March) indicates that we have reached full employment, a situation in which the market has absorbed all those ready, willing and able to work, and job growth therefor creates upward pressure on wages. The Manhattan Institute’s Diana Furchtgott-Roth notes that the labor market has been tightening over the past year — a more reasonable period from which to draw conclusions than data for a single month — forcing companies such as McDonald’s and Walmart to raise wages. That she fears, might be a sign that inflation will take off if the Fed persists in keeping interest rates at abnormally low levels, a view shared by Carnegie-Mellon economics professor Allan Meltzer.

Federal Reserve Board chairwoman Janet Yellen will have to apply more than a dollop of judgment as she sorts through not only the recent jobs data, but the conflicting signals flashing both red for slowing and green for accelerating. Indications that the economy is far from robust are not hard to find. In the fourth quarter of last year, growth slowed to 2.2% from a healthy 5% in the previous quarter, and many expect that when data are published later this month they will show a further slow-down in the current quarter, perhaps to 1% (Barclay’s, J.P. Morgan Chase) or less (Macroeconomic Advisers). The fall in oil prices, a net plus for the economy as a whole, is causing layoffs in the oil industry, with ripple effects on the economies of the oiliest states, among them Texas and North Dakota. The lack of any pick-up in jobs in the manufacturing sector reflects the combined effects of the negative impact on exports of the strong dollar, stagnation in euroland, and the decision of consumers to save rather than spend the solid 0.4% increase in incomes recorded in February.