Following the redistricting of the General Assembly in 2001 Virginia Democrats took a beating in the House of Delegates. They went from holding 47 of the chamber’s 100 seats to just 34.
However, while the setback was a harsh one, the Democrats began a slow and steady rebuilding effort. They targeted potential seats, recruited strong candidates and made sure they were well-funded.
It was almost a below-the radar-approach, but steadily it yielded benefits. In early 2008, following a special election in the Northern Neck, the Democrats in the House numbered 45.
Democrats were then convinced that they could find the six extra seats they needed to win a majority in the House, particularly by focusing on several potential swing seats.
These included two seats in Prince William County, one held by Bob Marshall and the other by retiring Del. Jeff Frederick. There was an open seat near Roanoke that had performed well for Democrats when Tim Kaine ran in 2005. Fairfax County Del. Dave Albo was another prime target.
Meanwhile, Republicans are planning to take back seats that had only recently switched or had vulnerable incumbents. Their strategy is surprisingly similar to that of the Democrats.
Three are in Northern Virginia, hardly fertile territory for the Republicans. One of the seats was held for decades by one-time Republican minority leader and later House Appropriations chairman, Vince Callaghan. It went to the Democrats after he retired in 2007. Del. Margaret Vanderhye won the election, but the area, which includes Great Falls and McLean, leans distinctly Republican.
Then there is Democrat Chuck Caputo, who represents western Fairfax County, and Loudoun County. Loudoun, while occasionally supporting Democrats, is still demographically GOP-friendly. Caputo is being challenged by Jim LeMunyon, a Chantilly-based technology executive who boasts that he has knocked on 10,000 doors in his district.
In addition to these three incumbents, is another prime GOP target: An open seat, being vacated by attorney general candidate Steve Shannon.
Then there is the eastern Loudoun seat outside of Fairfax, held by David Poisson. The region is not friendly Democratic territory and is considered vulnerable, particularly if the GOP does well in the statewide elections. So is the Hampton Roads seat won by Democrat Bob Mathieson two years ago.
Earlier in the year the popular wisdom claimed the Democrats were the best placed to pick up seats in the legislature this year. But that’s changing.
As the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds continues to lag behind Republican Bob McDonnell, the GOP is beginning to think their chances for a gain in the legislature have improved considerably. In other words they expect McDonnell to have coattails.
The GOP could have gone into this political year in downtrodden mood. However, they identified some key targets, recruited strong candidates, and supported them. This year, quite possibly, it may be the Republicans, after several elections where they lost ground, who score the gains.
Examiner Contributor David S. Kerr lives in Alexandria.
