Rep. Mick Mulvaney is backing Sen. Rand Paul for president, but he thinks Donald Trump is in position to win the Republican nomination and the White House.
“As you and I stand here, if he wins tonight and he wins in New Hampshire, I think he’s probably the nominee,” the South Carolina Republican told the Washington Examiner on Monday evening, adding that he thinks Trump could win the general election. “I’ve seen data that says states like New York could be in play. Show me another Republican candidate who puts New York in play other than maybe Rand Paul … I think he gets a lot of disaffected blue-collar Democrat votes.”
For Mulvaney, one of the rank-and-file lawmakers who pushed former House Speaker John Boehner into an early resignation last year, Trump represents a bit of a paradox: he has harnessed some of the same voter anger that empowered the Tea Party lawmakers in their fights with GOP leadership, but he doesn’t espouse the conservative ideology that animated most of those skirmishes.
“I’ve never thought he was a conservative, but to the extent he represents frustration with the status quo, I completely understand that,” the House Freedom Caucus co-founder said of Trump.
The prospect of Trump as president raises the possibility that conservative backbenchers would find it easier than it was during the George W. Bush years to convince Republican leadership to fight the White House. “Trump doesn’t have the institutional connections that Jeb Bush does, that’s probably fair,” Mulvaney replied when asked about the scenario. “There are probably a lot fewer people automatically willing to defer to him based on a relationship.”
All that speculation is meaningless if another Mulvaney prediction comes to pass: a fourth-place finish by Trump in Monday’s Iowa Republican caucuses, with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Paul and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finishing in the top three. “I think he’s got a problem tonight because of the organization,” Mulvaney said. “If he falters like that tonight, it’s really going to throw a monkey wrench in it.”
