Nine months into President Joe Biden’s term, the border crisis is showing no signs of improvement. August was the first time southwest land border encounters did not rise over the previous month, according to Customs and Border Protection figures, but that offers little comfort: It was the second straight month they exceeded 200,000, the highest level in over two decades, four times greater than August 2020.

Biden’s job approval ratings on immigration and border security were among his lowest even when he was relatively popular. He is now underwater on the question of his overall performance, with this issue previewing the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan that sparked his polling decline. “Self-generated crises are hard to defend, and that’s the perception he’s dealing with now,” said a Democratic operative.