Up to 32 million people could lose their insurance coverage over the next decade and premiums could rise 50 percent if Obamacare is repealed without a replacement, a new estimate from the Congressional Budget Office said.
The estimate used a repeal bill that Congress passed in 2015. The Republican-controlled Congress hopes to repeal the law through a new bill that could be similar to the 2015 legislation, but keep Obamacare intact for a few years while a replacement is crafted.
The budget office estimate, prepared after a request from congressional Democrats, looked at how a repeal would affect insurance coverage and premiums. The estimate does not factor in any replacement plan offered by the GOP.
The 2015 bill was passed via reconciliation, a process that enables budget legislation to be approved via a 51-vote majority. The bill gutted major parts of Obamacare such as its taxes and mandates for getting health insurance.
The budget office said on Tuesday that the number of people who are uninsured would increase by 18 million in the first new plan year following enactment of the bill.
“Later, after the elimination of the [Affordable Care Act’s] expansion of Medicaid eligibility and of subsidies for insurance purchased from the ACA marketplaces, that number would increase to 27 million and then to 32 million in 2026,” CBO said.
Premiums for the individual marketplace, for people who don’t get insurance through their job, would increase by up to 25 percent in the first new plan year.
That percentage would balloon to 50 percent in the year following elimination of the Medicaid expansion and the marketplace subsidies, and premiums would double by 2026.
Republicans aim to leave the law intact for a few years until a replacement is created, which has caused some pushback from some Senate Republicans who want repeal and replace to happen at the same time.
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., teased details of an Obamacare replacement plan over the weekend that he said could be approved on the same day as repeal. However, that plan hasn’t received any approval from Republican leadership.
