It’s been a while since we’ve seen supporters of Hillary Clinton square off in primaries against Bernie Sanders backers or Donald Trump Republicans have faced the forces of Marco Rubio. As voters head to the polls in Arizona and Florida Tuesday, we’ll see some of these political proxy wars play out in both parties.
Here are a few of the key primary races to watch.
John McCain seeks sixth term
The Drudge Report described the senior senator from Arizona and 2008 Republican presidential nominee as being in the fight of his life. His daughter Meghan indignantly replied that he had already survived the fight of his life as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. Suffice it to say that McCain is locked in a contentious Republican primary against challenger Kelli Ward.
Ward has run on much of Donald Trump’s platform against McCain. She opposed the Iraq war and has been a firm critic of McCain’s immigration and foreign policies. She has raised his age as an issue — now 80, McCain is already two years older than his Senate predecessor Barry Goldwater at retirement — and described him as too weak to win in November. Many who cheered Paul Nehlen’s unsuccessful race against House Speaker Paul Ryan are now boosting Ward.
The incumbent’s supporters have fired back with ads Ward has decried as part of a “sexist smear” campaign. One features her singing the Patsy Cline hit “Crazy” and suggests it is an apt description of the Republican Senate hopeful. “These tactics are exactly what we’ve come to expect from the ultimate establishment insider when he’s not busy calling for ‘civility’ while labeling conservatives as crazies, hobbits, and wacko birds,” Ward said in a statement.
McCain is in a tough spot. He has needed every Republican vote he can get against Ward, so he has reluctantly endorsed the GOP presidential nominee who questioned whether the senator’s capture in Vietnam made him less of a war hero. Trump has equally reluctantly endorsed him.
Heavily favored to beat back Ward’s spirited challenge, this means McCain may have to face Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick this fall with the top of the Republican ticket dragging him down. Both the Senate and presidential races in usually Republican Arizona are uncharacteristically close. It’s been speculated that McCain might run away from Trump once safely re-nominated, but the senator has denied it.
Paul Gosar looks for a fourth House term
Arizona’s other important federal race, the Republican primary in Freedom Caucus member Paul Gosar’s district threatens to be a repeat of what happened to Kansas GOP lawmaker Tim Huelskamp. Huelskamp was beaten with the help of outside groups tied to Republican leadership in a sort of reverse Tea Party.
Gosar’s race is the one of the first tests of whether Huelskamp’s foes found a national blueprint for beating Tea Partiers, with an alliance of establishment Republicans and local business interests working against him. Gosar is backed by Ted Cruz and the Club for Growth.
Fortunately for Gosar, his primary challenger Ray Strauss has raised little money and has low name recognition. But if the race is close, it could embolden a bigger name to enter the primary in 2018 and potentially coax bigger donors off the sidelines.
Sheriff Joe tries to hold on
Before Trump proposed building a wall and having Mexico pay for it, Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio was the name most associated with a hard line against illegal immigration. Now 84 and facing possible contempt-of-court charges, Arpaio is looking to hold off three Republican primary challengers on his way to a seventh term.
Arpaio is a law-and-order man but one of his opponents is former Buckeye police chief Dan Saban. Despite the national notoriety, some are arguing that for Sheriff Joe it is time to go. Arpaio endorsed Trump during the presidential primaries.
Marco Rubio reverses course, runs for second term
With the Senate on the line, Republicans convinced the Florida lawmaker to seek re-election rather than retiring after only a single term. Rubio had planned to either be in the White House or the private sector next year. Winning his primary tomorrow would be the first step in extending his stay on Capitol Hill instead.
The primary field mostly cleared for Rubio when he decided to give it another go. The lone holdout is builder Carlos Beruff. Rubio has mostly ignored his primary opponent, refusing to debate him. Beruff has run as a Trump clone of sorts, hitting Rubio on missed votes and immigration, criticizing him for not being sufficiently supportive of the GOP presidential nominee, spending some $8 million to help self-fund his campaign.
Yet there may be one notable difference between Trump and Beruff. Trump ended Rubio’s presidential bid by beating him in Florida. There is little evidence from the available polling that Beruff is going to replicate that feat.
Patrick Murphy’s law?
The winner of Florida’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate will face off against one of two Democratic congressmen in November. Patrick Murphy has won the national party’s support. President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid have all endorsed him. Murphy has enjoyed the most fundraising success.
But Murphy has lagged behind Hilary Clinton in statewide polling testing hypothetical matchups against Rubio. Some of this may be outside Murphy’s control, as Rubio is winning Hispanic Republicans in Florida who are reluctant to vote for Trump. Other reasons have more to do with Murphy as a candidate, particularly allegations that he has serially exaggerated aspects of his business career and resume.
Alan Grayon is running to Murphy’s left, as a perennial progressive thorn in the side of the Democratic establishment. Grayson says party leaders are “corrupt” and have thrown liberal candidates “in the garbage.” Yet Grayson has worse baggage than Murphy, getting in a reporter’s face and dealing with domestic violence allegations (which he denies) that have caused progressive groups to pull their support.
DWS redemption day?
Forced out of her job chairing the Democratic National Committee, will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be able to hold on to her congressional seat? Accused of biasing the presidential primary process against Bernie Sanders, Wasserman Schultz must now deal with a Sanders-backed progressive challenger in Tim Canova.
Wasserman Schultz’s tenure at the DNC was widely panned and ended abruptly at the party’s national nominating convention. Despite this, the House member has Clinton’s endorsement in the battle against Canova. While she is favored, she’ll need the help. Canova, a law professor, has outraised her with $3.3 million pouring into his coffers, much of it from Sanders voters outside the district looking to punish her support for Clinton and Wall Street.
The second coming of Crist
Charlie Crist was governor of Florida as a Republican, but he’s now lost a Senate race as an independent and a comeback gubernatorial bid as a Democrat. He runs unopposed Tuesday in a Democratic primary for the House seat held by Republican Congressman David Jolly, who like Crist in 2010 has seen his senatorial hopes dashed by Rubio.
November will be a tougher bet. Crist has not won a general election since 2006.
Replacing Jeff Miller
House Veterans Affairs Committee Chairman Jeff Miller is retiring from Congress, setting off a spirited Republican primary to replace him in this military-heavy district. The primary is all but certain to pick the general election winner.
With little data to go on, the conventional wisdom is that state lawmakers Greg Evers and Matt Gaetz are the favorites for the seat. But 26-year-old Rebekah Johansen Bydlak has been a surprise. She’s been backed by libertarian Republican stalwarts Ron Paul and Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, longtime conservative activist Morton Blackwell and Tea Party Patriots. She managed to raise $100,000 in six weeks, before her 26th birthday.
