A new poll of Florida Republican primary voters finds a tightening race between the Sunshine State’s two favorite sons in the 2016 GOP presidential primary. According to St. Leo University’s Polling Institute, former governor Jeb Bush has 30 percent support among likely Republican primary voters in Florida, while Marco Rubio, the state’s sitting junior senator, has 24 percent support. That’s a surge of eight points for Rubio since St. Leo’s last poll of the GOP primary in March, when the younger Republican had 16 percent support to Bush’s 31 percent.
It’s worth noting that since the March poll, Rubio has declared his candidacy, while Bush remains in the exploratory phase and is not officially a candidate.
Rubio continues to do well in Florida as a second choice for primary voters, with a field-high 29 percent calling him their second choice. Bush comes behind with 12 percent listing him as their second choice. And in a head-to-head matchup with no other Republican candidates? Rubio beats Bush by 8 points, 48 percent to 40 percent.
There was not much movement from March to June for the non-Florida Republican candidates in the poll. Wisconsin governor Scott Walker comes in at 7 percent, down from 10 percent in March, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is at 7 percent as well, down from 9 percent in March. Kentucky senator Rand Paul stayed steady at 7 percent support while former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is up to 6 percent in June from 4 percent in March.
Florida’s presidential primary usually follows the first three contests of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Given the state’s large population and numerous (and expensive) media markets, Florida has often been a test of a campaign’s big-money viability given the state’s numerous and expensive media markets. This year, however, the Florida primary will occur two weeks after the “Super Tuesday” March 1 primaries taking place in 12 states, including several in the GOP-heavy south.
