ORLANDO — President Trump was showing more resilience in Florida than other critical 2020 battlegrounds as he embarked on his reelection campaign, a challenge for a fractious Democratic Party that could be a year or more away from unifying behind a nominee.
Some political insiders are calling Trump’s staying power here the “Florida Man effect,” in reference to the social media meme used to describe unusual events or people that appear unique to the state.
Florida is home to many who moved there to start over — new career, new marriage, change of scenery, desire for a more entertaining lifestyle; some are just different. In all, that has made a significant percentage of Florida voters such as women, affluent suburbanites, and others more forgiving of the president’s personal foibles and provocative behavior than their cohorts in other swing states.
Andrea Stanford, a leader in the Florida chapter of Women for Trump, offered a rosy assessment of Trump that might sound alien even to segments of his supporters in other states.
“What I like most about what he’s done is bring people together, in spite of what the media says, being divisive,” said Stanford, 58, who traveled to Orlando for Trump’s 2020 kickoff rally from her home in Bradenton, just south of Tampa. “It doesn’t matter what color you are, it doesn’t matter what gender you are, it doesn’t matter what sex you prefer, it doesn’t matter what country you originated from and now are an American.”
In 2016, Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in Florida by 1.2 percentage points on the strength of robust support from whites and higher than the national average support from Hispanics, built on the Republican Party’s advantage with Cuban Americans.
Republican presidential nominees typically win the white vote, but as veteran Florida Democratic operative Steve Schale notes, Trump overperformed, particularly in the Interstate 4 corridor of the Orlando and Tampa media markets, which has seen an influx of Midwestern transplants. Many of these people, like the neighbors they left behind in the Heartland, shifted from voting for Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016.
“What is remarkable is how Trump ran up the score,” Schale wrote in a blog post, explaining why the president might have picked Central Florida to kick off his reelection bid. “In 14 counties within the I-4 markets, Trump set a modern era Republican presidential percentage margin of victory, and in 15 [counties,] he set the record for largest raw vote margin.”
Schale and other experienced political strategists of both parties are predicting another barnburner in Florida in 2020, fitting a pattern that has characterized elections here for governor, Senate, and president, going back years.
But exit polling from 2016, and Republican victories in the gubernatorial and Senate contests in a midterm election that was otherwise disastrous for the GOP, suggest that Trump might have experienced a smaller drop-off here than in other crucial swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin — and possibly emerging purple states like Arizona.
Exit polls from three years ago showed Trump with more support in Florida among key groups than he received from those same groups nationally. With women, the president garnered 41% nationally and 46% in Florida; with whites, he received 57% nationally and 64% in Florida; and with suburban voters, he scored 49% nationally and 53% in Florida.
Republican insiders say Trump’s relative stability in Florida in the midterm elections proved an asset to the party’s nominees for statewide office, nearly all of whom won. “Trump’s numbers are consistently more resilient in Florida than in other states,” said Curt Anderson who, as a senior political adviser to Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., also the former governor, has polled extensively in the state over the past several years.
Trump’s hold on Florida is nevertheless precarious.
Recent polling shows an opening for the eventual Democratic nominee, currently mired in a primary crowded with nearly two-dozen contenders. In two surveys, Trump was tied with former Vice President Joe Biden in a hypothetical matchup. And a growing community of Puerto Ricans, who tend to resent Trump for his handling of hurricane recovery on their native island, an American territory, give the president negative ratings, threatening to counterbalance the backing he receives from Cuban Americans.
Grassroots Florida Republicans, despite their fervor for Trump, recognize the president’s challenge there.
“The city of Tampa is very liberal Democrat, so it’s going to be hard, especially in that area,” said Margaret McDeed, 56, a member of the Hillsborough County chapter of Women for Trump. Hillsborough County, a key micro-battleground that includes Tampa, voted for Clinton in 2016 by slightly more than 41,000 votes.
Republicans are hoping that a booming economy gives Trump a decisive edge, although conditions could change over the next 16 months. Unemployment in Florida was a low 3.4% in April, the most recent data available, below the national rate of 3.6% for May.
