Pandemic’s reshaping of economy complicates recession predictions

WASHINGTON — As people pay more than ever for everything from bacon to gasoline and the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates in response, some economists say a recession is likely on the horizon, while others say one is already here.

“The war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions, and the risk of stagflation are hammering growth,” World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement last month. “For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid.”