Although President Donald Trump did not sign his sweeping agenda proposal into law until July 4, the White House maintains that the tax, spending, and immigration legislation is already paying policy dividends. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is making the media rounds to boast of what he calls the “capex comeback,” touting benefits derived by the nation from Trump’s self-proclaimed One Big Beautiful Bill Act, even before he and Congress enacted it.

Capital expenditures, the spending a business invests in fixed assets such as improved factory equipment or a new building, were up nearly 17% in the first half of the year. Excluding the anomaly of the COVID-19 pandemic, that’s the largest two-quarter gain in capex in this century. But why is an Independence Day-enacted law responsible for increased domestic business spending in the first six months of this year?