“The $15 wage an hour can easily be absorbed in Northern Virginia, where the costs of living are already high,” Dr. David Bieri, Associate Professor of Public and International Affairs at Virginia Tech, told the Washington Examiner. “But it presents an extraordinary challenge for rural areas, for obvious reasons, where, also, the number on payroll that’s going to be affected is much larger.”

SPANBERGER RAISES VIRGINIA’S MINIMUM WAGE TO $15

$15 an hour goes much farther for a worker in rural southern Virginia than it does in the booming economies of the commonwealth’s metropolitan areas. The wage increase is also set to impact the economy in rural areas more, where many workers’ wages are closer to minimum wage, compared to the high-earning workers in the DMV, Richmond, and Charlottesville areas.

Bieri, who is an expert on wage economics in Virginia, spoke with the Washington Examiner about how far the current $12.77 minimum wage takes the Virginia worker in different regions and how an across-the-board bump to $15 will affect the stratified regional economies. He gave a back-of-the-envelope comparison of the $12.77 wage across the state.

“You could say the real value of that wage is roughly about $9.50 in Northern Virginia; it might be even closer to nine in places like Alexandria and Arlington,” Bieri said. “In places like Richmond and Charlottesville, it’s roughly that: $12.77. But in places like Danville or the extreme southwest, it can be as much as about $15 in terms of real value.”

At an annual income of $31,200, the general annual equivalent of a $15 per hour salary, in Roanoke, the cost of living is 47% lower than in Arlington, according to a Forbes cost of living calculator. In the southeastern Hampton Roads area of Virginia at that income level, the cost of living is 50% lower than in Arlington.

The average home price in Roanoke is about $406,273, versus $1,071,955 in Arlington; the average price of bread in Roanoke is $4.09, compared to $4.39 in Arlington; and the average price of a doctor’s visit is about $155 in Roanoke, compared to $178.33 in Arlington, per Forbes.

In Hampton Roads versus Arlington, the average home price is about $397,731, versus $1,071,955; the average price of bread is $4.13, compared to $4.39 in Arlington; and the average price of a doctor’s visit is about $138.79 in Hampton Roads, compared to $178.33 in Arlington, per the outlet’s calculator.

According to AAA’s average fuel prices, the average price for regular gas in Roanoke County sat at around $3.869 per gallon on Friday, while a tank in Arlington County cost about $4.130. In Hampton City, it was about $3.922 per regular gallon.

Bieri used the more rural town of Abingdon, a southwest town near the Tennessee border, to explain the cost-of-living differences. He explained that a basket of goods that costs about $100 in a place like Abingdon would cost about $167 in Arlington.

He described the $15 minimum wage shift as a “modest nudge that most employers will absorb without disruption” in Arlington, but said in a place like Abingdon, it would be “a structural labor market shock.” He explained that, on average, there may not be many layoffs by employers who could not afford the wage raise for their employees across the state, but that in remote areas, it would have the biggest effect.

“The employment effects are usually very small,” Bieri said. “There are very few establishments, on average, that will start laying off people because of that increase. But that doesn’t mean that it makes structurally vulnerable areas – that have few employers, small employers, weak employers – particularly vulnerable. Two things can be true at the same time.”

“We’ve seen evidence of that, actually, in Virginia’s south side for previous increases,” Bieri continued. “If we have large areas where the local median wage is so low that it’s near that threshold, there will be large employment effects.”

Compared to its neighboring states, Virginia’s current minimum wage is lower than Maryland’s, which sits at $15 per hour. Virginia and Maryland are both similar in their regional wealth disparity trends, as Maryland has wealthier areas surrounding the DMV and Annapolis, while also being home to areas with high poverty rates on the Eastern Shore and in parts of Baltimore.

Virginia’s $12.77 minimum wage is higher than North Carolina’s, Kentucky’s, and West Virginia’s, which each have rates of $7.25, $7.25, and $8.75, respectively. Washington, D.C.’s minimum wage is $17.95 per hour. Over 20 states have minimum wages of over $12.77.

Spanberger made raising the minimum wage a focal point of her 2025 affordability-focused campaign for governor, promising to raise the pay to $15 per hour once she took office.

“Today, we are putting more money in the pockets of Virginia workers,” Spanberger said in a statement regarding the minimum wage increase. “If you work full-time in Virginia, you should be able to afford to live in Virginia. You should be able to keep up with your rent or mortgage, fill your medications, and save for your kids’ futures.”

A January poll from Christopher Newport University found that about 78% of Virginian respondents supported the state Democrats’ bill to raise the minimum wage to $15 by 2028.

The age-old economic debate over minimum wage has been a sticking point between Republicans and Democrats in the Old Dominion, as Youngkin called the $15 minimum wage proposal a “one-size-fits-all mandate” that “ignores the vast economic and geographic differences,” in his veto memo last year.

SEATTLE DEMOCRATS LEARN MINIMUM WAGE LAWS HAVE A COST

“Implementing an arbitrary $15-per-hour wage mandate may not impact Northern Virginia, where economic conditions lead to historically higher wages, but this approach is detrimental for small businesses across the rest of Virginia, especially in Southwest and Southside,” Youngkin wrote.

The debate will start to play out in real time in 2027, as the minimum wage rises to $13.75. Then in 2028, it will level off at $15.