The top candidates in California’s gubernatorial race will face off twice this week, starting Tuesday night, as the contest to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) enters a tightly packed phase.
Tuesday’s televised debate on CNN comes just one day after voters began receiving mail-in ballots for the June 2 primary election, raising the stakes for a field in which five of the eight candidates are clustered within striking distance of one another. With early voting underway, the window to break out is shrinking rapidly.
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Among the leading contenders are three Democrats — former California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, billionaire hedge fund manager Tom Steyer, and former Rep. Katie Porter — along with two Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
Tuesday’s debate, moderated by Kaitlan Collins and Elex Michaelson, is the first of two high-profile showdowns this week. A second debate, hosted by NBC News, will take place on Wednesday. For candidates struggling to separate themselves, the back-to-back events offer a critical opportunity to seize momentum in a race that remains unsettled.
A new California Democratic Party poll released Monday underscores just how fluid the contest has become, showing Becerra and Hilton now tied for the top spot at 18%, both gaining from the previous survey as voting gets underway.
Bianco remained flat at 14%. Steyer and Porter saw slight declines from the April 20 poll, while Matt Mahan posted a modest bump to 7%. The share of undecided voters has dropped from 24% in March to 14%, a clear sign that voters are beginning to tune in.
Becerra’s rise marks a dramatic turnaround. Once stuck in the low single digits in a sprawling field that at one point included 60 candidates, he has surged into the top tier in recent weeks. His ascent followed the abrupt exit of former Democratic California Rep. Eric Swalwell, who dropped out last month amid allegations of sexual assault and misconduct.
“Xavier Becerra has decades of fighting for Californians under his belt, and he’ll be bringing that fight to the debate stage on Wednesday,” Jonathan Underland, a spokesman for Becerra’s campaign, told the Washington Examiner. “From lowering costs to expanding affordable health care coverage to spurring the construction of housing everyone can afford — Becerra is the only candidate on stage with the experience needed to deliver results on day one.”
Hilton disagrees.
“My preparation for the debate has been traveling our state, listening to Californians and seeing how desperate they are for change,” he told the Washington Examiner. “We are holding town halls up and down California, just this weekend from San Francisco to the Central Valley, hundreds of people coming out to each event, with larger and larger crowds every week. The questions people ask, the stories they tell – that’s the best preparation. I’m the only outsider in this race, running to shake up a system that obviously isn’t working. And the voice of the people I’m hearing on the road is the voice you will hear from me in these debates.”
California strategists say the biggest tell tonight will be who draws the most fire. They expect Becerra to take hits from Democrats over immigration and corporate influence, while Republicans try to tie him to his former boss, former President Joe Biden. Becerra was the Health and Human Services Secretary during the Biden administration.
They’ll also be watching whether Democrats coalesce around a single target, most likely Hilton, in a bid to blunt his rise in the polls.
Attention is also on Porter, who sits in the middle of the pack. She had been gaining traction before Swalwell exited the race and was seen as a possible beneficiary of his departure. Instead, much of that support appears to have consolidated behind Becerra. Still, a misstep from him or a sustained pile-on could reopen the lane for Porter if she delivers a strong performance.
Last week’s 90-minute debate at Pomona College devolved into a crosstalk-heavy clash, with candidates interrupting, griping about airtime, and drifting off message as moderators warned microphones could be cut. The spectacle highlighted a field still scrambling for definition — and for the attention of voters just starting to engage.
That same urgency is expected to carry into Tuesday’s debate, as candidates look to break through before ballots are cast in what has quickly become one of the most unpredictable gubernatorial races in recent California history.
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But veteran political expert Garry South told the Washington Examiner that even though the stakes are high, he’s not sure it will move the needle much.
“In my experience, candidate debates are rarely as decisive or re-defining as the hype would have it, both from the sponsoring organization itself and the candidates,” he said. “In a two-way presidential debate, there are moments that matter. But in an eight-person gubernatorial debate, there really isn’t enough time allotted to each candidate to allow for a breakout moment — unless one candidate walks across the stage and punches out another one.”
