Why experts aren’t sold on Democrats’ polling advantage

Published October 10, 2026 7:00am ET



Pollsters and Republican political operatives aren’t fully buying the Democratic polling leads that project the minority party to flip the House and possibly win back the Senate, a task considered herculean at the start of the 2026 election cycle.

Heading into the weekend, polls showed Democrats holding an advantage of more than 8 points over Republicans on generic House ballots, leading most analysts to believe that the chamber will flip majorities in November.

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