There was a big polling miss in Tuesday’s Michigan Democratic Senate primary that raises questions about how much we really know about the midterm elections, even though the expected candidate ultimately won.

Progressive Abdul el Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) by about 1 point with 95% of the vote reported. But the polls predicted a resounding, double-digit victory for el Sayed, punctuating the socialists’ long march through the Democratic Party. Instead, the Associated Press didn’t call the race until Wednesday morning as Stevens outperformed her poll numbers.