Republicans are rightly worried about Elon Musk’s threat to form a third party, but for all his considerable talents, the billionaire’s latest political project faces numerous obstacles before it can become a real threat to the status quo.

The first is the lack of a candidate. When Musk made his first foray into national politics, President Donald Trump solved that problem. Whatever the merits of Musk’s contribution to the Trump 2024 ground game, we have yet to see it replicated down-ballot. Trump was previously elected president in 2016 and mounted a competitive reelection bid in 2020 under historically adverse conditions. Musk’s forays into the Wisconsin Supreme Court race were unsuccessful and may even have backfired.