Republicans poised to reclaim control of the House

The GOP defied the odds in 2020 to pick up about a dozen seats, even as the party lost the presidency and Senate. Republicans now need only five seats to assume the majority in what is shaping up to be a red wave election year.

House Democrats are facing political headwinds in the form of stubbornly high inflation and a national crime wave. This, combined with a spate of Democratic retirements and voters’ tendency to throw out the party in power, had Republicans campaigning aggressively this cycle, targeting seats in districts that President Joe Biden won handily in 2020.

The Supreme Court’s June decision overturning Roe v. Wade buoyed Democrats’ electoral hopes, and the party bet campaigning on abortion access would galvanize its base. Democrats spent more than $18 million through September splashing the airwaves with abortion-centric TV ads in battleground districts.

Predictions of GOP dominance gave way to a “summer surge” for Democrats as its candidates outperformed expectations in a string of special elections. Democrat Pat Ryan won in a New York swing district campaigning heavily on abortion access, and Mary Peltola (D) prevailed in red Alaska under the state’s new voting system.

Election analysts repeatedly downgraded the number of seats Republicans were projected to pick up, and at their low point, the data website FiveThirtyEight gave Republicans a 68% chance of winning control of the lower chamber, down from 88% in June.

But after Labor Day, the momentum shifted back to Republicans as the party hammered Democrats on crime and the economy, rated as top concerns among voters.

Election analysts like the Cook Political Report began shifting ratings in Republicans’ favor for contests across the country, among them Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s race in New York’s 17th District. The prospect of Maloney, the man in charge of House Democrats’ election strategy, losing reelection prompted the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which Maloney chairs, to inject $600,000 in a last-ditch effort to save the seat.

On the eve of Election Day, Cook predicted the GOP would pick up between 15 and 30 seats.

Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said even if Republicans meet expectations, “the GOP left money on the table by nominating extremist candidates who did not appeal to centrist voters.”

“Such a result would be a signal that Republicans should tread lightly if the party gains control of the House,” he told the Washington Examiner.

House Republican leadership, for its part, is bullish on these projections and has been crisscrossing the country in the cycle’s final weeks in support of candidates in competitive races.

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House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) held events with 42 members and candidates in 17 different states in October and early November alone.

The campaign swing follows House Republicans unveiling their “Commitment to America,” an agenda for a Republican House majority reminiscent of Newt Gingrich’s 1994 “Contract with America,” credited with propelling the House GOP to power for the first time in 40 years.

Gingrich, a former House speaker, has served as an unofficial adviser for Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and accompanied him in recent days on the campaign trail.

McCarthy and Scalise are unopposed in their bids to become speaker and majority leader, respectively, in a Republican majority, while there’s a three-way race for majority whip.

Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) office says she’s locked down enough Republican support to secure another term as conference chairwoman, though she faces a challenge from freshman Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL).

McCarthy’s bid for speaker is not without drama. The conservative House Freedom Caucus wants to pass a rules package that would diminish his power next year and is angling to vote on the rules before the conference holds its leadership elections, slated to take place the week after Election Day. The timing would give the caucus leverage over McCarthy.

Democrats will likely hold leadership elections following the Thanksgiving recess. The biggest question is whether Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), the current speaker, retires if the party loses control of the House on Tuesday, possibly paving the way for a new generation of House leadership.

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has been floated as a candidate to replace her as the top House Democrat, as have Reps. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Steny Hoyer (D-MD), and Jim Clyburn (D-SC).

Should Republicans win a House majority on Tuesday, McCarthy has promised to address what Republicans say are the failures of Biden and his Cabinet.

“What we’re really going to have to do here is build an economy that’s strong, tackle this inflation, become energy independent so you can afford to fill up your tank and still have money left for food,” McCarthy said Sunday on Fox News.

House Republicans have promised “accountability” for the Biden administration and are expected to investigate everything from the “politicization and bias at the FBI” to the business dealings of the president’s son, Hunter Biden.

A GOP win on election night will still leave Democrats two months to pass legislation in the lame-duck session of Congress. The Jan. 6 committee investigating the Capitol riot is winding down its efforts and is planning to issue a final report sometime after the midterm elections.

Its mandate expires at the end of the current session of Congress, and Republicans are expected to dissolve the select panel if they retake the majority come January.

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Pelosi has repeatedly expressed confidence that Democrats will retain control of the House despite the fundamentals working against her party this election cycle.

“She has to say that,” John Feehery, a Republican strategist, told the Washington Examiner. “When you’re a leader, you have to go down with the ship. I’m sure that [former House Speaker Dennis] Hastert said the same thing in 2006. I’m sure that [former House Speaker Paul Ryan] said the same thing in 2018. It’s all part of the deal.”

Maloney conceded on NBC Sunday that the outcome will be “razor-close.”