Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is facing a high-stakes decision that could shape not only the contest to succeed him, but his own political future.

Former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s abrupt exit from California’s gubernatorial race following allegations of sexual assault has further splintered an already crowded and volatile Democratic field. Party insiders have been urging Newsom to step in to help consolidate support behind a credible candidate, or at least impose some order on a race that risks turning chaotic. But any move to anoint or even subtly boost a candidate carries real danger for the outgoing governor. If his preferred choice falters, Newsom could emerge politically weakened, undercutting his standing ahead of a potential 2028 presidential run.