California’s gubernatorial hopefuls will square off Tuesday for the first time since former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s abrupt exit following bombshell sexual assault allegations that upended the crowded primary race and injected fresh uncertainty into it.
The debate marks a critical test for the top six remaining candidates as they jockey for position in a wide-open field, with no clear front-runner and Democratic voters still fractured. It also offers the first real glimpse of how the field is recalibrating in the wake of Swalwell’s departure, from competing for his supporters to drawing sharper policy contrasts.
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With the race newly unsettled, the debate could provide momentum to a breakout contender or further underscore just how fluid the path to succeeding Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) remains. The outgoing governor, who is expected to run for president in 2028, is term-limited. He has been reluctant to throw his support behind a candidate, despite being urged by party supporters to step in or at least impose some order in a race that risks turning chaotic.
Sacramento insiders told the Washington Examiner that there has been a pressure campaign for Newsom to step in, but any move to anoint or even subtly boost a candidate carries real danger for the outgoing governor. If his pick loses, Newsom could emerge politically diminished, undercutting his standing ahead of a possible presidential run. That did not seem to be a problem in the lieutenant gubernatorial race. On Monday, Newsom endorsed Josh Fryday, a former Navy veteran and California’s chief service officer.
The gubernatorial candidates chosen for the Inside California Politics debate were the performers that recieved at least 5% backing in an Emerson College Polling survey taken after Swalwell’s exit last week.
Democrats are now splitting their vote between Biden-era Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, billionaire Tom Steyer, former Rep. Katie Porter, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan ahead of the June 2 primary. Becerra gained 15 points among Democratic voters without Swalwell on the ballot. Despite the gains, the top two Republican candidates, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Sheriff Chad Bianco, remain the front-runners in the race.
President Donald Trump recently threw his support behind Hilton, posting on social media that he had known the London-born-and-raised Hilton for years and called the conservative commentator “a truly fine man” who could turn around a state beset with notoriously high taxes. California, Trump wrote, “has gone to hell.” Trump also highlighted many of California’s problems and blamed Newsom for each of them. He emphasized high crime rates and taxes and noted that Californians are relocating to other states to escape those burdens.
Tuesday’s debate is expected to focus on key issues facing California, including the economy, housing, public safety, and the state’s future direction. It is unclear if Swalwell will be mentioned. Candidates will have the opportunity to deliver an opening statement and closing remarks and will be guided through moderated topics.
California’s housing costs rank among the highest in the country. The state is also grappling with a deepening affordability crisis, largely driven by a chronic lack of supply. The shortage has contributed to rising homelessness, an exodus of residents, and a widening gap between high- and low-income earners. The state has also taken an economic hit. While Newsom has often pointed to the economy as a source of pride, critics argue the figures mask the everyday hardships residents face and fail to capture the state’s broader challenges.
Addressing those concerns could be what it takes for candidates to separate themselves from the pack.
Jeff Burton, co-founding partner at Maven Advocacy, pointed to a broader lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters for the party’s current candidate situation.
“There’s an enthusiasm gap in the Democratic field, that’s how Swalwell rose and why Republicans are polling 1-2,” the Republican strategist told the Washington Examiner.
California uses a jungle primary system, in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.
Concerns that vote-splitting among the Democratic contenders could produce an unexpected outcome prompted Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party, to urge lower-performing candidates to step aside. In an open letter last month, Hicks warned that internal divisions and ego-driven campaigns could give Republicans a viable path to the governor’s office. Most of the candidates have ignored him, but on Monday, former state Controller Betty Yee announced she was withdrawing from the race, citing poor internal polling.
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While Democrats still hold a strong advantage in the deep-blue state, strategists increasingly said they are worried that the state’s primary system could upend expectations. With so many Democrats dividing the vote, there is a scenario in which two Republicans advance to November, leaving a party that has been in power for 16 years entirely shut out.
Such an outcome could have national implications. Party leaders fear that a general election without a Democrat at the top of the ticket could dampen turnout statewide, possibly jeopardizing key congressional races as Democrats seek to reclaim control of the House.
