Michigan voters will head to the polls on Tuesday in the state Senate’s 35th District to cast ballots that will decide the chamber’s balance of power for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer‘s (D-MI) final year in office.
Democrats currently hold a 19-18 seat advantage in the Michigan Senate, with one vacant seat after state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet left the state chamber for the U.S. House in January 2025. If Republicans can flip the former Democratic seat in Tuesday’s special election, they will have much more negotiating power in the state’s upper chamber.
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The candidates running in the general special election are Democrat Chedrick Greene, a former Marine and fire captain; Republican Jason Tunney, an attorney; and Libertarian Ali Sledz, a mother of three.
The 35th District, which covers parts of Bay, Saginaw, and Midland counties, has a thin margin after its 2020 redistricting redraw. McDonald Rivet won the state seat in 2022 by a margin of 6.8 percentage points against her GOP opponent, former state representative Annette Glenn. However, each of the counties in the district voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election over former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Bay County swung for Trump by a 14.7-point margin, Saginaw by a 3.3-point margin, and Midland by a 15.2-point margin. The parts of these counties that make up the 35th District are now more competitive, according to the Associated Press.
If Tunney wins on Tuesday and the seat becomes red, the Michigan Senate would have an even 19-19 party-line split. This would give Republicans the ability to insist on bipartisan support for bills to pass, even though Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II is the tie-breaking vote and could block single-partisan legislation by abstaining from votes, according to the Detroit Free Press.
The special election will also be an indication of how voters in a close Michigan district, a closely watched swing state, will show up in the 2026 midterm elections.
In a state that Trump flipped by 1.4 percentage points in 2024, pundits will be eyeing the margins in the 35th District to see how GOP voters turn out and what the main issues at stake are for voters in 2026.
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According to a mid-April Emerson College poll, 40% of likely Michigan general 2026 primary voters said the economy is the most important issue to them, followed by 15% who said threats to democracy was the most important issue.
Polls in the State Senate race close on Tuesday at 8 p.m.
