A Republican sweep of state offices in Virginia, including Republican Glenn Youngkin’s win over Democrat Terry McAuliffe, could push a number of House Democrats to retire, fearful of what the race means for the political winds in 2022.
Virginia’s off-year gubernatorial election is often viewed as a barometer for the mood of the country for the midterm elections, though its reliability in that respect is mixed. In the last five cycles dating back to 2001, the party that gained in the House matched in midterm elections that of who won the Virginia governor’s race three times.
But taking together the trend of midterm elections historically benefiting the party opposite from the president, Democrats’ slim majority in the House, and Youngkin winning Virginia by about 2.5% when President Joe Biden carried the state by 10% a year earlier could have some Democrats running for the exits.
“I assume it will push some on the fence to retire. In fact, I will be shocked if that doesn’t happen,” Democratic strategist Jim Manley told the Washington Examiner.
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Seven House Democrats have announced that they will retire from Congress and not run for reelection in 2022. Those include longtime Kentucky Rep. John Yarmuth, chairman of the House Budget Committee, and Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, who led House Democrats’ campaign arm in 2020 when they unexpectedly lost seats. Another six are seeking a different office in 2022.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm for the House GOP, in March compiled an “exit list” of 27 Democrats likely to retire or run for a different office in 2022. Last month, the NRCC noted that Democratic Reps. Steve Cohen of Tennessee and G. K. Butterfield of North Carolina raised surprisingly little in the last fundraising quarter, indicating that they could be preparing to announce they are not running for reelection.
And riding the momentum from Republican victories on Tuesday, the NRCC on Wednesday expanded its 2022 House district target list of seats to flip by 13, bringing the total to 70.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy flaunted Democrats’ losses and what they mean for the future of House control.
“There’s going to be a lot of retirements, either before the election, or in 370 days,” McCarthy predicted in a press conference on Wednesday.
He also forecasted that Republicans could flip 60 seats next year, on par with Republicans’ massive 63-seat gain in the 2010 Tea Party wave midterm elections.
“If you’re a Democrat and President Biden won your seat by 16 points, you’re in a competitive race next year. You are no longer safe,” McCarthy said.
The NRCC pointed to two Virginia congresswomen whose districts drastically shifted toward Republicans by 14 to 17 points from 2020 to 2021.
Rep. Elaine Luria won her district in the Virginia Beach-Norfolk area by 5.8% in 2020, slightly outperforming Biden there who won it by 4.7% over Trump — Youngkin won it by 8.3% this year. Rep. Abigail Spanberger won her central Virginia district by 1.8%, also slightly better than Biden’s 1.1% win in the area. Youngkin won it by 15.4%.
Not all House Democrats may find it better for their political careers to avoid a grueling reelection battle by retiring, though.
Some Democratic strategists caution that a lot can change in a year, and President Joe Biden’s approval numbers along with Democrats’ stature nationwide can improve before then.
“If you’re a member of the U.S. House, there’s an extra incentive to pass major legislation and go around talking about it,” said Jared Leopold, a Democratic strategist with extensive experience in Virginia politics. “There’s a path to surviving despite a swing in those places.”
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Matt Bennett of centrist Democratic think tank Third Way suggested a way forward for Democrats.
“Terry McAuliffe’s defeat is terrible news for the people of the Commonwealth. But it’s also a warning for the broader Democratic Party. McAuliffe’s loss can be attributed mainly to two things: stasis and schools. Unless we change course, these two issues could take down our majorities in the midterms,” Bennett said in a statement.
