A new poll of the U.S. Senate race in New Jersey reveals an astonishing trend: Cory Booker, the state’s Democratic senator running for a full term this fall, frequently polls below 50 percent support against his Republican challenger, Jeff Bell. The latest survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University shows 42 percent of registered voters say they support Booker, while 29 percent say they support Bell. Twenty-seven percent, meanwhile, say they haven’t made up their minds yet.

That’s a 13-point advantage for Booker, to be sure, but it’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for the former Newark mayor, who won a special election for the open seat last year. The New Jersey seat is a likely Democratic hold, but the FDU poll is one of several polls taken over the past few months to show Booker below 50 percent. In fact, just two polls, both from the New York Times and CBS News, have Booker breaking that threshold, with the most recent of those giving 52 percent to Bell’s 37 percent. One poll last month even had Booker leading by a mere 10 points.