Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott announced on Monday that he would challenge incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in the state’s upcoming Senate race. Scott’s official entry into the race isn’t a surprise (many political insiders suspected he would run), but it is a win for the GOP. If Nelson were running against a replacement-level Republican the race likely wouldn’t be competitive, but Scott might be able to outperform a more typical GOP candidate and either keep this race close or potentially win. I’ll explain why.

Most people who have read anything about the midterm elections know that fundamental factors favor the Democrats. President Trump’s approval ratings are historically low, and midterms typically serve as referendums on the president and his party. That means that if Trump remains unpopular, voters will punish down-ballot Republicans in November.