President Donald Trump will soon find out whether he has a new wild card to worry about in the Senate after helping send John Cornyn (R-TX) into an early retirement.
Cornyn on Tuesday became the second incumbent to lose his primary to a Trump-backed challenger, handing Senate leadership another lame duck with no incentive to back Trump or his legislative agenda. The first was Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), who quickly made clear he would use his political freedom to criticize Trump on everything from the war in Iran to the Justice Department’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund.
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Cornyn’s immediate message after he lost to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was conciliatory, telling reporters gathered for his concession speech that he would support the Republican ticket this fall. And Trump, too, sought to tamp down tensions with Cornyn, calling him a “friend” and lauding his decadeslong career in the Senate.
But if recent history is any guide, Cornyn’s retirement instantly makes him an unreliable vote for the White House, and Cassidy is not the president’s only problem.
Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY) fit into the category of retiring senators who have occasionally, and sometimes vocally, broken with the president. Several other Republicans have an independent streak but aren’t up for reelection this cycle. On any party-line vote, Senate leadership can afford to lose only three Republicans.
Cornyn downplayed the possibility that he would behave any differently if he lost on Tuesday, telling NewsNation on the eve of the election that he wants Trump to be “successful.” Up to this point, Cornyn has gone out of his way to curry favor with the president and even abandoned his long-standing support for the filibuster in an apparent bid to win his endorsement.
Cornyn did, however, leave himself some wiggle room in his answer, saying he would pick his fights on a case-by-case basis.
Senate leadership is already having a hard time tamping down defections, losing a vote on the war in Iran last week and delaying passage of Trump’s immigration enforcement bill following an uproar over the “anti-weaponization” fund.
Cornyn also holds immense power as a member of two committees that may consider Cabinet replacements in the coming months. A single vote could block nominees as Tillis did for months with Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Senators are gone for the Memorial Day recess, giving Cornyn some breathing room after his 28-percentage-point loss to Paxton. But he will quickly be thrust back into the political spotlight when lawmakers return Monday.
There are reasons to expect Cornyn won’t go as far as Cassidy in registering his disagreement. Cornyn has built his political career as a party man and is close with Senate leadership, serving as an adviser to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD).
He has not always been a natural fit for the MAGA era, and he urged Republicans to move on from Trump before his election to a second term.
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Among the retiring senators, Trump dubbed Tillis a “nitpicker” on Friday for his repeated criticism, while McConnell has largely flown under the president’s radar since he stepped down as GOP leader last year.
McConnell focuses most of his public disagreements on foreign policy, although he took a swipe at the “anti-weaponization” fund on Thursday, calling it “utterly stupid” and “morally wrong.”
