Even if he wins half of the remaining Republican presidential delegates, front-runner Mitt Romney will fall 345 delegates short of the 1,144 needed to win the nomination, possibly setting up a brokered convention, according to a new analysis by the “super PAC” backing challenger Rick Santorum.
In a white paper from the Red, White & Blue Fund, the analysis shows that Romney would have only 799 “bound” delegates going into the Tampa GOP convention. Romney’s team claims that their math has them winning more than 1,144.
RW&B said: “So far, 697 delegates have been allocated by either state party rule or state law to particular candidates. If each candidate continues to accumulate the 918 remaining delegates that will be bound at the same rate, no candidate will reach 1,144 going into Tampa. Mitt Romney currently has 344 delegates by our count. If he continues to accumulate bound delegates at the same rate (49% of bound delegates) moving forward, he will add approximately 450 of the 918 delegates still to be bound. This would give Romney only 799 delegates going into Tampa.”
The fund starts at a lower number of delegates for each candidate than most media counts. The reason: They only count bound delegates, of which there are fewer. For example, their delegate list has Romney with 344, Santorum with 193, Newt Gingrich with 160 and Ron Paul with 33.
The Wall Street Journal has Romney at 563 and Santorum at 263.
Their analysis, seen here, explains on a state by state basis how the delegate race could break down.
