Gamblers are shying away from Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden after he failed to get a substantial poll bounce from the Democratic National Convention, cutting in half his once-massive lead over President Trump.
The latest from the betting-market site Smarkets still shows odds favoring a Biden win, but they are tightening, and Trump still has three more nights to make his case at the virtual Republican National Convention.
The analysis shared with Secrets said, “Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in our ‘Next President’ market has more than halved since its peak at the beginning of August. Trading activity on Smarkets currently gives Biden a 56% chance of winning the presidency, a drop of seven points since the end of July. Trump has climbed eight points over the same period to 43% — his highest position in over two months.”
Patrick Flynn, the political analyst for the British betting site, said that the “anticipated post-convention bounce for Biden has failed to materialize in our market, with his lead sliding to 13 percentage points, down from an all-time high of 28 points at the start of August.”
He added, “We do not know whether this is due to the content of the event itself or the fact this scaled-down edition took place virtually in the midst of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Either way, it has provided something of a window of opportunity to Donald Trump as he accepts his own party nomination at the Republican National Convention this week.”
The site also unveiled an Electoral College map that showed Biden ahead, 312 electoral votes to Trump’s 226. In order to win, 270 votes are needed.
The U.S. website “270 to Win” currently shows 278 electoral votes for Biden and 169 votes for Trump.
