Of course, Trump does make some news, but it’s mostly complaining about the 2020 election results and cheering on some 140 GOP candidates he has endorsed for 2022 who have won so far.

But for the 2024 race, Shaftan’s mother and millions of other Republicans are starting to look past Trump to others more engaged on problems shocking the nation and taking on President Joe Biden.

“It’s actually even worse than it appears for Trump,” said Shaftan, whose new poll shows a dramatic drop in support for Trump in Iowa and a bump up for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. “No. 1, he keeps talking about 2020, which is the past. It’s ancient history to people. What it says to people is that he’s more interested in himself than attacking Biden, going after the Biden agenda.”

“It just reminds people he lost,” Shaftan said. “The second problem he has, which is I think even a bigger problem, is after four years of Joe Biden, are we going to run another 78-year-old?”

National polls suggest both parties want to move past their aging leaders. A Rasmussen Reports survey this week said just 29% of likely voters want Biden to run again and that just 37% want another Trump run.

Shaftan said state polls, especially in early primary and caucus states Iowa and New Hampshire, are better to watch since they are the starting points for 2024. And the poll he’s done for Courageous Conservatives PAC isn’t good for Trump.

In data shared with Secrets, Trump leads in Iowa, but the margin has been slashed 18 points from November, and he is the first pick for only 37% of Iowa Republicans. DeSantis is up nearly 5 points to 17%. Undecideds more than doubled to 36%. The next-closest first pick is former Vice President Mike Pence at just 2%.

A University of New Hampshire GOP survey showed DeSantis over Trump, 39% to 37%, confirming a growing trend among Republicans.

While it is silly to suggest Trump is losing, Shaftan said the former president isn’t so dominant that he will keep others out of the race.

“Trump is the de facto incumbent, right? You have an incumbent under 50% — that’s a problem no matter what the race is,” he said.

And while Trump can shift course and rally the base going into 2024, Shaftan said he may have lost undecided voters who are key to winning.

He said Trump organizers “can say, ‘We’re 20, 21 points ahead of DeSantis.’ That’s fine. But that doesn’t mean anything. I mean, if you’re undecided, it’s not like, ‘Well, I’m undecided, but maybe I’ll go with Trump again. We’ll see.’ There will be a few people who might, but if you’re an undecided at this point, it means you’re not supporting Trump.”