Virginia Republicans, led in the commonwealth-wide gubernatorial and House of Delegates 2025 races by lackluster Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, appear headed for a Democratic rout, according to the long-awaited State Navigate analysis of the election.

The nonpartisan group on Monday released its review of the races and found Republican gubernatorial nominee Earle-Sears behind former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger by 11.4%. It also said that Spanberger has a 96% chance of winning the governor’s race.