Threading the needle will be difficult, but our favorite pollsters at J.L. Partners have surveyed the public and found a way for Republicans to message on a thorny issue in time for the midterm elections. They asked 1,000 registered voters if they received a tax refund and, if so, whether it met or exceeded expectations.

The results revealed that people thought their refund was higher than expected by a margin of two-to-one. Of those who received (or will receive) money back, some 48% said the amount was what they expected, 16% said it was less, and 32% said it was more than they anticipated.

So far so good. Last week’s Tax Day brought record refunds, spurred in part by Trump’s “no tax on tips” policy, relief on overtime, and other tax breaks. IRS data revealed that the average refund was $3,462, an 11% increase.

However, Democrats and their allies have warned that the cash is being eaten up by higher gas prices. The average price of a gallon is now above $4 for the first time since 2022.

So how do consumers feel? Are they sensing it in their wallets and purses?

To test the question, J.L. Partners asked: “Is your tax refund more or less than the increased amount you expect to have to pay on gas for the next year?”

The results surprised the pollsters, who assumed that the gas rise would wipe out any benefit. 

Only 32% said their tax refund will be less than the extra amount they expect to spend on gas this year. Another 32% said it will be more than the extra cost of gas. The rest were unsure or reckoned the two would cancel each other out.

Caveats first. This only applies to people who said they would receive the refund. But the encouraging news is obvious: There is a potential political dividend in Trump’s tax cuts ahead of the midterm elections, despite the naysayers, and there is no need to sound the alarm yet that the economy is going to be hit by reduced consumer spending.

“To be clear, the picture is not positive for Republicans on the economy, especially since the Iran War,” said James Johnson, J.L. Partners cofounder, in his latest U.S. Pulse newsletter. “Food price increases later in the year could wipe out any positive dividend from tax returns. But it picks up a nuance that we are not seeing in public data elsewhere, a sliver of potential for Republicans to turn the story around, and informative on where inflation goes next.”

In other words, continued spending could have positive ramifications for the health of the economy. But inflation could tick up if producers increase prices and consumers keep spending.

At this stage, with oil supplies still snarled up in the Middle East, Republicans should take what they can get.

Someone stage an intervention

Kudos to the New York Post’s Caitlin Doornbos. She hot-footed it to Islamabad to cover Vice President JD Vance’s meeting with Iranian officials, making the daylong journey just in time to report that there was no breakthrough.

And there she stayed. Having reported on 21 hours of talks, she has now been there 11 days (and counting), asking locals for recommendations for things to fill her empty days, posting videos of her playing golf, eating kebabs, and appearing on Pakistani news shows.

The reason? Trump told her last week that talks would resume within 48 hours, a deadline that came and went. (Secrets suggested at the time she might be wise to take the president seriously, but not literally.)

So Secrets’ heart goes out to her editors today, after she posted her latest phone exchange with the president. 

Could there be the possibility of more peace talks in the next 72 hours? “It’s possible! President DJT,” he responded by text.

Secrets is rather jealous of her stay in Pakistan. But wonders if she should now be counted on some kind of collateral damage list. 

Quote of the day

“I’m not sure why after 10 years of covering this president, the American media still cannot understand, when President Trump says he’s gonna do something, he’s going to do it.”

This was Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary, to Fox News on Monday. The day before Trump announced he was extending the Iran ceasefire, after saying he wouldn’t extend the ceasefire.

Lunchtime reading

TMZ Is Expertly Trolling DC: Washington reporters have reacted with their usual snootiness to social media posts by upstart political reporters from TMZ, reveling in their newbie status and celebrating, for example, breakfast at Tatte. Could it be that the TMZ reporters were simply trying to get a rise out of a famously humor-free press corps?

I extracted uranium from top-secret labs. Here’s how Trump can do it in Iran: How Project Sapphire collaborated with Kazakhstan to physically remove more than half a ton of 90% enriched uranium and sent it to Tennessee.

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