President Donald Trump’s promise to “help” Iranian protesters significantly raises the stakes on United States involvement in the Middle East. 

Should Trump fail to strike Iranian targets, experts suggest he could undermine the “peace through strength” foreign policy he’s cultivated over the past year, including last summer’s targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and this month’s operation to capture former dictator Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. On the other hand, assisting Iranian protesters with toppling their government poses the same nation-building risks the U.S. encountered in Iraq and Afghanistan, efforts Trump campaigned heavily against over the past decade.