The outbreak of war across the Middle East following Oct. 7, 2023, has drawn in the three major power blocs of the region — Israel, the Gulf countries, and Iran — but the fourth, Turkey, has stood back and bided its time.

Though the country has received less attention as it has largely stayed out of the recent chaos, Turkey’s strategic position continues to play a fundamental role in shaping the trajectory of the Middle East. The government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has overhauled the country’s foreign policy and maneuvered to establish it as a great regional power. The degradation of Iran, its centuries-old foe, is set to be just the latest strike of good fortune.