The narrative surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war shifted dramatically from the start of the summer to the end.

In early summer, for the first time since Ukraine’s ill-fated invasion of Russia’s Kursk province in 2024, Western capitals and media claimed that Ukraine was winning, with the boldest predicting outright victory. Lines at Russian gas stations, crippled refineries, and images of burning oil depots blackening the sky lent credence to the narrative, as did blackouts and fuel shortages in Crimea.